Are we in recession? Economists Say Not Now, But Maybe One Is Coming

If you’re worried about how long the ghost of a possible downturn will linger on in your business, the slowdown will stay here. The US economy shrank for the second consecutive quarter between April and June, Decreasing at an annual rate of 0.9 percent and meeting the mark for an informal definition of recession

Although most economists believe that the economy is yet to enter recession. The job market is moving along, and consumer spending has remained stable despite the highest prices in 40 years.

“To be clear, we are forecasting a recession, but we don’t have a start until early next year,” Wells Fargo Securities senior economist Tim Quillon and economist Shannon Seery wrote in a statement. Comment After the GDP figures were released “the strength of the labor market today is the best argument against those who say we are already in a recession.”

Although surveyed by economists Reuters The U.S. had predicted a GDP growth of 0.5 percent rather than a decrease during the second quarter, the decline representing an improvement compared to Q1 2022, when economic activity contracted by 1.6 percent. And the US economy is not technically in recession until National Bureau of Economic Research One declares – a process that involves a non-biased group of economists examining a wide range of factors. But two straight quarters of negative GDP has long been a working definition of a recession and is often a harbinger of eventual acceptance from the NBER.

Despite the numbers, pessimism is taking hold, as many small businesses report that it is already feels Like we’re in recession. Earlier this month, national association of free trade found that small business owners’ expectations for conditions in the next six months fell to their lowest level ever. According to a recent survey by Goldman Sachs, more than nine out of ten small business owners are worried about the US economy entering a recession within the next year.

When the economy shrinks, small businesses are often the hardest hit. But while business owners are feeling hopeless about economic conditions, they are feeling upbeat about their chances of facing the coming recession. Eighty percent of businesses believe they can face a recession, according to recent research. cabbage, a unit of American Express that provides small business checking and credit. The founders are feeling excited because they’ve been here before – and only recently. The pandemic was the highest cited reason why business owners believe they are in a stronger position to survive whatever the business cycle throws at them.