así ha plantado resistencia al dólar en 2022 – Meczyki

En medio de la ‘massacre’ que habido en el universo de las monedas de mercados emergentes este año, una sorprende con su resistencia atípica: el Mexican peso

Ha logrado sostenerse mientras casi todas las Monedas pares succumbieron al incesante impulso alcista del Dollar. His superior performance is so marked that some analysts have decided to put it on him “Superpiso”.

Part of the fortress comes from relatively typical stimuli: a strict fiscal policy and increases in interest rates that have driven the carry trade, pero otro factor clave son las expectatimos de un cambio radical nl comercio mundial en las próximos años que podría generar un aumento en la inversión extranjera directa.

Mexico Etra Ehora China clothes Ya que los salarios más altos y un aumento en los costos del transporte socavan lo que venian siendo sus vantageas competaciones. El COVID ha creado una aversión a las cadenas de supply remotasa factor that also incites companies to move their operations in Asia to locations closer to the United States—the largest market in the world—, a change that is known as Close to the beach.

A dichas preocupaciones logísticas se suman los cierres strictos como parte de la Political chain d’sero-covid And the concerns that China could take measures against Taiwan that would provoke sanctions from the western countries.

¿México will grow at the expense of China?

It repeats something that happened two decades ago, when China joined the World Trade Organization and rapidly moved to Mexico as the principal manufacturing center for American companies. AhuraMexico’s exports to the United States reduce the gap with China And there is agitation in the foreign exchange market, surprising investors that at the end of last year they predicted that the peso would be Uno de los mayores losers A new world in 2022.

“México is starting to recover the competitive advantages that it lost decades ago”, underlined Hari Hariharn, executive director of the coverage fund NWI Management, based in New York. “Esta va a ser una decada de ascenso de México a expensas de China”.


El giro también se evidencia en el performance del peso mexicano vs. yuan chino. From the climax of the massive sale during the pandemic in March 2020, El peso to Ha Valorizado 15 Por Santo Front ASU Counterpart Chain, uno de los mejores resultados entre las principales monedas. L Close to the beach This tendency will accelerate in the next decade, according to Hariharan.

El auge se nota en todo el norte de México, el corazón industry del país. Desde Tijuana en la costa oeste hasta Matamoros en el extremo sur de Texas, hay bulldozers y excavadoras por todas parts. At least six suppliers of Tesla (the Taiwanese companies EnFlex and Quanta Computer, the French firm Faurecia, the German ZF Friedrichshafen and APG México) have established operations in Nuevo León since 2021.

Mientras tanto, la empresa china contemporary Imprex technology, el mayor fabricante mundial de Batteries for vehiclesestá considering al menos dos úbicaciones en México para una planta que abastecería a los fabricants automotor, informó Bloomberg This is me.

In a year during which the dollar advanced to a record in its best annual performance since 2015, the peso yielded less than 1 percent to around 20.7 monedas por dólarmarking the second best performance among the main currencies after the Brazilian real.

No obstante, algunos escépticos dudan que pasar la producción a México is lo suficiente significanto como para representar una base de avances largo plazo para la moneda.

The value in dollars of Mexico’s exports to the EU is still inferior to China’s by a wide margin, although the gap is reducing more and more. Y hubo momentos en el pasado en que analistas pensaban que México estaba listo para este giro but never sucedió. In particular, las projections surgieron en 2007 y 2008 cuando el aumento de los precios del petróleo elevó los costos del transporto, y luego againmente cuando el expresidente de EU, Donald Trump agitó las su manesdarante contact China.

L Factor AMLO

More recently, the nationalist energetic policies of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and conflicts with companies have been perceived as an impediment to investment. Last week, the EU said that Mexico’s energy policies violated the Free Trade Agreement (T-MEC), aunque hubo pocas consecuencias en el mercado del peso.

In the first quarter of this year, Mexico reported a record entry of 19 million 400 million dollars Inversión extranjera directa, which represents 5.8 percent more than last year’s period after excluding unique mergers. Vacancy rates in the industrial parks of Juárez, Reynosa and Monterrey reached historic lows in the first quarter due to the demand for nearshoring, Credit Suisse analysts said in a June report. During his trip to Washington this month, López Obrador predicted that the American investment in the country would reach 40 billion dollars between now and 2024.

Mexico’s exports to the EU have been growing faster than those of its Asian rivals during most of the period since 2016. Que 3 año en exportaciones annuales desde México.

México exported 422.000 million dollars to the EU in the last 12 months, 121.000 million less than China. That gap was almost 200 million hace cuatro años.

La transformation de las cadenas de supply will llevará tiempo, pero los enredos causados ​​por la politica de cero COVID de China Empujarán a las companies to diversify operations “por si caso”, dijo John Paul Lech, gerente de cartera de Matthews International Capital Management en San Francisco.

“Mexico is in a good position”, apuntó Lech. “El nearshoring could be a topic that impacts Mexico during long periods of time”.

peso subvaluado

The relatively cheap valuation of the peso is an additional attraction for foreign investors. On a trade-weighted basis, the currency has been on the weakest side of its 10- and 20-year averages since 2015, according to data compiled by the Banco de Pagos Internacionales. L tipo de cambio ponderado por el comercio de China, por otro lado, ahora ronda los máximos de siete años.

“Vemos el tema del nearshoring como un factor positivo a mediano y largo plazo para el peso mexicano”, escribieron Joseph Incalcaterra and Clyde Wardle, estrategas FX de HSBC, en una note del 14 de julio.

Si bien los riesgos de recesión en EE.UU. pueden pesar sobre la moneda mexicana a corto plazo, los flujos resistentes de la balanza de pagos should be allowed to permit que el peso supere a sus pares regionales, escribieron. El banco predicts that the peso will advance by almost 7 percent to 19.25 dollars by the end of next year, he wrote.