continúa la recuperación débil e incompleta – Meczyki

Economista en Jefe de BBVA México

La semana pasada SE dio conocer el dato preliminar de crecimiento del PIB corresponding to the second trimester of this year that was of 1.0 percent with respect to the previous trimester, lo cual implica que la economia se une de anmoizóredo de al. cento Comparando la primera mitad de este año frente al miso periodo del año previo, la economía creció 1.7 por cento. From trata, sin duda, de United Nations buen semestre que muestra que el proceso de recuperación continúa.

This growth is explained because the bottlenecks in the global value chains have been relaxed, favoring the recovery of industrial production. Remember that a few months ago there was a serious problem of shortage of semiconductors that today almost disappeared due to the regularization of maritime transport, the normalization of the demand for electronic equipment requería de mejor connectivity) ya una mayor investment por parte de los manfacturers de estos productos. En México, hace unos meses la industria automotriz operated a un 60 por cento de su capacidad instalada y hoy lo hace alrededor del 90 por cento, que era el nivel observado antes de la pandemia.

The recovery is also explained by the growth in consumption (sustained in high levels of savings that families have accumulated during the pandemic), the recovery in employment, and the unprecedented levels of revisions that are harmful to health. las primeras (lo cual a su vez se explica por lo avanzado del proceso de vacunación).

Sin restriction, no debemos valorar el processo de recuperación de la economía unique por el dato de un trimester. The reality is that the economy of the country continues to show important levels of slack and that the recovery continues to be anemic and incomplete. Considering the recently published growth data for the second quarter, the economy of Mexico is still 1.1 percent below the level it had before the pandemic. This is in contrast with the main Latin American economies: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru have already recovered the levels of activity recorded before the health crisis. Ahora bien, si comparamos el nivel actual de PIB con el que se tenería de haber seguido creciendo al ritmo prepandemia (que por cierto era de presumir) vemos que la economia está 6.8 por cento por debajo debajo debachoni.

El nivel del PIB corresponding to the second quarter of this year announced last week is comparable to that observed in the second quarter of 2017. That is to say, five years of growth have been lost (in terms of compátira per centimeter).

There are quienes mencionan que es notable que la economía mexicana haya crecido este trimester mientras que la de Estados Unidos se contraía. Some argue that it is a sign of strength in the economy of the country and others talk about the process of decoupling both economies. Ambas apreciaciones beta incorrectas. What is happening is that the economy of the United States has recovered vigorously after the fall caused by the pandemic, and it has grown even more than its potential level. Era una economía sobrecalentada (lo cual explica en parte su elevada inflation) y que ahora está desacelerándose, lo cual es deseable y contributará a reducir el alza de precios. On the other hand, the Mexican economy, as mentioned, is still not recovering from what was lost in the pandemic and continues to be immersed in a recovery process. While one economy decelerates to levels closer to its potential, the other continues to approach slowly towards these. Los datos de crecimiento al segundo trimester no implican ni que la economía de México muestre mayor fortaleza que la de Estados Unidos ni que estas economías se estén desacoplando. Por el contrario, siguen muy compenetradas y ello implicará un menor crecimiento el año entrante. I will write about this in the next installment.