Economic Scenario vs Sesgo Cognitive – Meczyki

Queries from the most frequent questions that I have heard in the last few weeks are the following: ¿Have you ever been to the EUA? y ¿Cuándo alkanzará su nivel maximo inflación? My response, sometimes surprising, is that it is possible to be proud of the receipts received and submissive of the inflections. In the case of the esoteric receiver, he confessed that he had confessed in a solo indicator with predictable predictive. When it comes to perspective inflection, opting for acceptance with humidity that is extremely complicated by pronouncing the point of gear in inflation. See the latter, more than defending my posture, offering a reflection of the form in the form we perceive as real and what it means to have a special characterization with a resemblance to a little bit of inflection.

For one thing, the perception that the main cause of nervousness before a final recession in the EUA is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and, so to speak, the negative trend in the curve of the bonuses of the Tesoro. This decides, since my lecture, is a superlative import to the idea that there is a historical recurrence: curva invertida igual a rexión próxima. Curiously, the apparent recurrence has produced false positives in the past.

I wondered if there were any men in the form in the form that could perceive the history of history and its relation to the actual scene. In a first case, he encounters the “effective anchor”, as if he had manifested himself in the form of a confessional confession in the first information available, in the present case, the idea that the rendering of the curve of rendering is a good pronosticador Del Cyclo Economico. At the end, if you listen to the “heuristic disposition”, it is said that we will take care of the probability of events with high availability of information, in this case, everyone has received it. curva invertida.

Given the anticipation of the “confirmation”, we will not accept any evidence that our conclusion is predetermined. There are some economic indicators that have been shown to be deteriorating recently, which can eliminate the “illusion of validity”, which is probably due to the lack of prognostic accuracy with which the data is intercepted.

For the last time, we have not heard of the “sesgo de pesimismo”, as the mayor of the city imports probabilistica to the adverbs of adversity or the advent of resultant desirables.

For the first time, he encounters the spectators who are looking for a pico in the inflection, independently of the fact that the antecedent descends or never misses this point. Dado que las fuentes de presiones alza en precios, tanto pasadas como presentes, se encounternt todavía vigentes, me es relevante hacer una eskala ya reconocer otro tipo de posibles sesgos en juego.

One of the possible sesagos is “the falacia del apostor”. As it turns out, it is easy to think that the future prospects are modified by passing elements. In the case of inflation, the pennies ask how much help we received from a little pico in the inflorescence alone because we consider that in the passage alone it has elevated one and the other, and that it will be a time of moderation.

Against the esoteric reception, find the penny plant if a “sesgo optimist” encounters it or not in a game, expecting that the infusions of the presciences may encounter a point of no return.

For the last time, considering the fact that you will receive an important piece of receiver and a little bit on inflation, it is important to record an ultimatum on sesame seeds. The “sesgo de vagón”, aquel que nos lleva a adopter un escenario en buena medida debido a que vemos o percebimos que otros lo adoptan. The anterior nos lleva to “sesgo de autoridad”, the quail can actually act on the mayor’s assignment relevancia the trainees plantadores by figures of reconciliation or authoritarianism.

Confirming that, all these sesame seeds in the form in which we perceive the reality, we do not know in other words: “Effect Dunning-Krueger”. Aquel que nos recurda que, a veces, entre menos sabemos, más confidos nos llegamos anster respecto a una decisi on o conclusión.