El gobierno mexicano va derecho a las sanctions – Meczyki

What is the reason why the Mexican government let the confrontation with the North American authorities get to the point where it had to plant a formal negotiation in the framework of the Unique Mexico-State Treaty?

The response to this question has to do with the vision that López Obrador has regarding the energy sector. This vision is the one that also allows you to anticipate the possible scenarios of this negotiation.

Unless there is a big surprise and the real government decides to change its perspective in energy matters, the most likely is that, after concluding the period of consultations that will last 75 days, there will be a solution for the element of conflict. .

Y, si no hubiera sorpresas, lo más probable es que un analisis imparcial concluya que la razón está de parte de los quejosos, por lo cual hay una probabilidad elevada de que se decrete un castigo arancelario a nuestro. According to the estimates made by the deputy Ildefonso Guajardo, who was Secretary of the Economy during the negotiation of the agreement with the United States and Canada, the penalty could reach the figure of 30 mildólicósco mildélicosación de importa de locos de locos la cifra. .

However, a lot. El gobierno mexicano thinks that, due to que se incluyó un chapítulo en el cual señala que el control de los hidrocarburos corresponds to the Mexican State, con ello es suficiente para justifyar las politicas que han appliedo.

The government of AMLO starts from the premise that it is in his right to establish mechanisms and eventually change the laws to strengthen the position of the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) and Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), the right to establish the Comisión la sovereignty national.

The diagnosis made by the current administration is part of the basis of the fact that during many years, and especially since the energy reform of 2013, Pemex and CFE have been marginalized from the petrol and electric market. , electriodeción. La reforma constitutional yss derivaciones en cambios legacies, crearón conditions para que padera conformaris un mercado petrolero y un mercado electrico.

When monopoly conditions exist, the regulation that seeks the creation of this market tends to establish asymmetric conditions to the actors of the competition to be able to avoid that the monopolies maintain control.

In certain measure, this started to happen during the six-year period of Enrique Peña and it is precisely this set of measures that the government of López Obrador seeks to disarticulate.

The problem for the current government is that the vision of building a UN energy market to replace the monopolies was embodied in the Constitution and in various chapters of the Mexico-United States-Canada-Canada Treaty, companies from the countries that subscribed to the agreement los que definen las condiciones de competition en los diversos sectoros económicos.

These definitions of TMEC enter into contradiction with the vision that sustains the actual energy policy in Mexico. President López Obrador has signaled that he will ask for the support of the current Mexican ambassador to China, Jesús Seade, who was the negotiator for part of his administration in the TMEC, including before the six-year period formally began.

Marcelo Ebrard has signaled that Mexico will seek not to reach the dispute resolution panel and try to resolve the dispute during consultations because the risk of reaching the panel is high. For this to be possible and to resolve the reason for the complaint, it would require, for example, that the government modify the Law of the Electric Industry or change the policies that have been put in place to resolve the policies that have been put in place ráctica de la Comérética de la Coméré de la Industria Eléctrica energy

The prohibition of sin López Obrador has raised the question that this would mean a violation of sovereignty and condemned those who do not support it as traitors to the country. With this vision, the expectation of reaching an agreement during the stage of consultations is practically zero. The problem with the vision of the Mexican government, or at least the President of the Republic, is that it does not seem to repair when a treaty of free trade is signed or even when it goes further and the rules of the republic are established. relación, los países de facto hacen una renuncia parcial a su soberanía.

No es solo el caso de México. In the actual world, all nations that have signed agreements have done so. The extreme and most clear case is that of those nations that constitute Economic Unions, like the case of the European Union. sin embargo, aunque el TMEC no llega tan lejos, los compromisos subscritos sí implican una partial renuncia a la soberanía, aunque no guste al gobierno actual.

It must be remembered that in legal terms, the United Nations international treaty ratified by the Mexican Senate, like the TMEC, has a hierarchical level superior to the secondary laws and is only conditional on the Constitupúica. Bajo esa premise es que el escenario más probable, regrettably, es que se llegue a la decisión de aplicar sanciones arancelarias.

If this happens, and according to international practices, it is most likely to be applied in those sectors that may generate major damage in the Mexican economy, because it is precisely a punishment.

Así, por ejemplo, it is considered that one of the sectors that could be subject to sanctions is that of agro-alimentary exports.

Pudiera ser que los producedores de tomato o de de berries, por ejemplo, sin deberla ni temerla, fueran los receptores de las ciones. Diversos produceres en los Estados Unidos han reclado que productos mexicanos les quitan mercado so una gameda del norteamericano gobierno para castigar a los mexicanos pódria permitir el gobierno de EU congraciarse con grupos importantes de locales de products de. It is probable that other sectors in which punishments may be applied have something to do with Mexican exports, in which there is little participation by American companies.

According to the times predicted by the treaty itself, it is possible that the outcome of the whole process could be defined in the first half of 2023, but, since now and until then, the topic would be in the logenda, the loss in the additional logenda. de incertidumbre que afectaría negativamente a las inversiones en los siguientes meses y años. Ojalá nos equivoquemos.