Invierno difícil – Meczyki

Los precios del petroleum siempre han sido unstable. In 1972 the barrel of Brent cost 20 dollars and two years later it was 50. In 1980 it reached 100 and six years later it fell to 30. In 1998 it fell to 30. . dolares, en 2016 en 30 y ayer en 108.

When Joe Biden arrived at the White House, the United States had become the world’s leading producer and net exporter. Se había librado de la dependency del Medio Oriente, disponía de combustibles baratos y estaba ayudando a los países de Europea Oriental a depende menos de las importaciones rusas. En gran parte, su éxito se debía a que volvieron a utilizar antiguas técnicas para producir por medio de fracturación hydráulica (fracking) oa partir de esquisitos bituminosos (shale).

Everything changed very quickly in a few months. Biden llegó con una ambitious agenda ambientalista y la empezó a impulsar sin prever las consecuencias. Canceled the extension of an important gas pipeline that connected with Alberta and issued regulations that obliged the closing of many refineries and a reduction in the production of carbon.

At the same time, the Covid pandemic forced the suspension of the operation of oil fields, refineries and ports in many parts of the world. Se dejó de invertir y se retrasó el mantenimiento. Los hidrocarburos empezaron a escasear ya encarecerse.

The invasion of Ukraine has just distorted the market. 40 percent of Western Europe’s gas and petroleum consumption comes from Russia and the Kremlin has used this circumstance to advance its geostrategic objectives. Amenaza con cerrarles los ductos en el invierno y los obliga a pagarle en rublos. Con los altos precios prevalecientes compensas las ciones que le impusieron y no tiene problema para colocar su petroleum en China, a precio discontado.

La Unión Europea también venia endureciendo sus ambiental norms y había canceled muchas Centrales eléctricas nuclear oa base de carbón, pero había alcanzado a substituirlas por fuentes de energía renovable. Incluso estaba a punto de imporer una especie tarifa (ajuste fronterizo) a las importaciones de energía y de productos intensivos de carbon. La aplazó indefinidamente al ver que se habian elevado muchísimo las invoices de la electricity.

Los Europeos le pusieron pausa a su battle contra la crisis climática y están lochando desperadomente para frenar la inflation y evitar una recesión. Ya se convencieron de que deben acabar con su dependencia de los rusos. No lo conseguirán pronto y van a tener que invertir mucho. Meanwhile, they are trying to diversify their suppliers. Qatar, Egypt and the United States are selling more gas, but they are now concerned about having regasification terminals in their ports.

The European Commission has set up a fund for infrastructure and is trying to coordinate actions to, for example, purchase joint gas and share installations. In the short term, what remains are energy saving measures and incentives to make generation more efficient and improve the isolation of buildings. The situation could worsen if the war in Ukraine escalates.

DE EST LADO

In the United States, the problem is consumer prices. El galón de gasoline costaba 1.20 dollars en abril y ayer estaba a 4.70 en average, llegando en algunas parts a 8.15.

Aunque la demanda se redujo en 7% (because there are more people working at home) and their refineries are operating at 95% of their capacity, they have not secured their supply. Además, neither los ambientalistas nor el Congreso permiten subsidir la gasoline.

Last year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia agreed not to increase crude oil production to maintain high prices. Infructuously, President Biden traveled to Saudi Arabia to convince them to revoke this agreement. Neither have the Venezuelans done much, nor have the Iranians promised the return of the nuclear agreement. Only Canada has increased its production. De todas formas, neither the Saudis nor the Emirates have the possibility of extracting much more.

This will be a difficult winter for the United Nations on both sides of the Atlantic, with prices skyrocketing and the threat, increasingly evident, of a global recession.