Como lo hemos tratado en este mismo espacio, the inflation we face and the loss in the purchasing power of our ingresos que le acompaña pareciera no tener contention, this despite the efforts of the delcoarmeno de Bancoarmeno. Based on the latest data published by INEGI, during the first half of July 2022, the country’s annual inflation rate was 8.16%, much higher than the country’s monetary policy objectives.
sin embargo, al margen de los multiples factores internos que hemos discutido en otras ocasions, el phenomeno inflationario que vivimos, histórico para muchas de las generaciones jóvenes, tiene partially sus origins fuera nail.
For example, the rate of annual variation of the Consumer Price Index (IPC) in the United States in June 2022 was 9.1%, 5 tenths higher than the previous month. The monthly variation of the IPC has been 1.4%, so that the cumulative inflation in 2022 is 6.3%, also a level without recent precedents in this country.
¿Qué está incidiendo en este acceleramiento de los precios a nivel mundial y cómo se traduce eto en la inflación a nivel más local? The response we can find in the complex interconnection of commercial relations between nations and the conditions we face during this pandemic by COVID-19.
According to a report published recently on the Internet by the International Monetary Fund (FMI), there are four international components in the global inflationary phenomenon, which end up affecting our pocket in an indirect way.
First, the IMF identifies that the war conflict between Russia and Ukraine has accelerated global inflation. As a result of this war, it is predicted that the inflation will be higher than expected due to the high costs of raw materials and the greatest pressure on prices. In addition to the increase in the price of energy and raw materials, the increase in the price of food also had a very significant influence on inflation in most of the energy market economies. Economías de mercérolase reducidad por los phenomenós meteorológicos extremos y la subida del precio del petroleum y el gas encareció los fertilizantes.
Second, according to the IMF, another factor that influences global inflation is growth in global aggregate demand. This basic component of the international economic system was released last year in an environment of support policies on the part of some of the largest economies, while at the same time increasing the strangulation of suction in foreign countries. economic ports, the congestion of maritime transport, the shortage of containers and the absence of workers. As a consequence of all the above, the global inflation increased, especially in the economies where the recovery was stronger. This phenomenon of growth in demand will have to be moderated in the following months, as observed yesterday in the United States, where a reduction in its level of quarterly production was announced, presaging a world evacuation.
Thirdly, the FMI also detects a reequilibration of the demand for goods towards services. During the beginning of the pandemic, spending was oriented toward goods and merchandise when the restrictions linked to the pandemic caused disruptions in on-site activities. D’Esta Pharma, las estrangulamientos de la oferta y el crecimiento en su demanda impulsaron la subida de los precios de los bienes. Despite the fact that service inflation began to pick up last year, spending patterns prior to the crisis have not recovered at all, and the majority of goods inflation is still notable. Se espera que conforme la pandemia comience a ceder o controlarse, la demanda de servicios conturaura augamento y la inflation general debiere situarse de nuevo en los niveles previos a real crisis.
Finally, the FMI identifies that the labor supply continues to be limited after the important contraction registered in some advanced economies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. The shortage of workers, mainly in sectors of intensive contact with those who were affected by the closures to avoid infections, pushed up wages, and with this, the costs of companies. Cabe señalar que la inflation ha sido tal que ha erosionado las mejoras salariales que se hubieran podido tener por este impacto.
Ante estas presiones inflationarias globales, la reaction de los gobiernos buscando contenerlas no se ha hecho esperar, en special por parte de sus authoridades monetarias.
The increase in interest rates has represented the monetary supply mechanism that allows the control of inflation when it is associated with accelerated spending or excessive growth in aggregate demand. The prohibition of sin, as we have seen in previous points, the observed world inflation also has an important component of supply, so this mechanism of action could be insufficient to contain it.
Before the prediction of specialists and diverse institutions that this global inflation will continue for more time, we also hope that the central banks, in our special case Banco de México, will reduce the inflation of interest. de Mexico. economic system, and increasing for us the cost of credit to which we have access.
Rising inflation, reduced income and expensive credit are without doubt very strong blows to the budget and welfare of millions of Mexicans. Ante estos nuevos retos las recommendations son las de siempre: priorizar, planar, persistir y, sobre todo, prudencia en el uso de esa powerfule económica y financiera tool, el crédito.
Dr. en Economía por la Universidad de Chicago. Author of diverse books and academic articles. He has received multiple national and international recognitions for his academic and research work. Currently he is Professor-Investigador de la Facultad de Economía UANL. Web: www.jorgeomoreno.org.