La parsimonia del Fed – Meczyki

For more than a year, the inflation in the United States has shown an upward trend, until registering rates that have not been seen in more than four decades.

A partir de Marcho de 2021, the annual inflation, medida con el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (CPI), inició un ascenso por arriba del objetivo de 2.0 per ciento established por el Banco de la Reserva Federal de ese paísis (). From June to September of 2021, this indicator remained at a little over 5.0 per cent, from October it accelerated, and in June of 2022, it reached 9.1 per cent, according to Mayor ritembre de191vide no.

El recrudecimiento inflationario también se ha observado en las variaciones monthlyes del CPI. Inflation in June was 1.3 percent, the highest in nearly 17 years.

In an environment of global contractions of supply, derived from the consequences of Covid-19 and, in recent months, from the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the American inflation has been the result, primarily, of an impulse of the excepólíspory monetary demand.

Specifically, with respect to PIB, the federal deficit of the United States will reach 15.0 percent in 2020 and 12.1 percent in 2021, the largest since 1945. . estadounidense fue 128.8 y 123.4 por ciento en 2020 y 2021, resp. Both proportions greatly exceeded those of the finals of the Second World War.

The fiscal stimulus was accompanied by the major monetary lasitude of the entire history of the Fed. Tras haber vuelto a diminuir virtualmente a cero la tasa interes de referencia en Marcho de 2020, este banco Central increasedó, a un precedente ritmo, su programa de compra de actives financiers en el mercado (QE), el cual de instrument de inclusa . gubernamental y relacionados con hypotecas.

In May 2022, the size of the Fed’s balance sheet amounted to 8.9 billion dollars, more than double the previous one to the pandemic, and eight times the previous one to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. ” of the great part of the public deficit of the last two years.

The Fed’s reaction to the increase in inflation has been remarkably slow and still is far from removing the extraordinary monetary stimulus. De hecho, no fue sino más de un año después, in the middle of March 2022, when the current cycle of increases in the reference interest rate began.

The restriction of sin, este instrumento aún se halla 75 puntos base por abajo del prevaliente three years antes, a pesar de que la inflation annual de entonces era menos de la quinta parte de la actual. Su nivel se mantiene negativo in real terms, con base tanto en la inflation observada como en la esperada.

Equally, the Fed delayed until March 2022, to stop QE and until June of this year, to start a gradual program of reducing its balance. In two months, the reduction of said balance has been 0.2 percent.

Given that the elevated inflation cannot be prolonged without the validation of the monetary policy, in the last instance, the accommodative character of this has supported the general increase in prices.

Varias razones could contribute to explaining the parsimony in the response of the Fed. An important factor has been the persistent underestimation of the problem by the Comité Federal de Marcado Abierto (FOMC). Ello ha quedado de manifesto en la thesis sostenida durante 2021 de que la inflation sería transitoria, así como el continuo sesgo la baja en las yeecciones inflationarias de los miembros del FOMC.

Another element could be the new monetary policy framework established in August 2020, within which this Central Institute gave priority to the maximum employment component within its dual mandate, attributed within its dual mandate, attributed to social devotions, interbuyénés of concedión de su mandate en la concedió. average, para lo cual estipuló que la inflation debá ubicarse, por algún tiempo, “moderadamente” por arriba de 2.0 por ciento.

Un tercer element, más claro durante 2022, consiste en el temor del Fed a provocare una recesión. En su lugar, este banco Central ha expressed the desire to facilitate a “soft landing”.

The main current danger of the American economy seems to be that of “estanflation”, that is, high inflation and low growth. This scenario will materialize if the Fed continues to condition monetary tightening so that unemployment does not increase much. This strategy would revive the experience of “pare y siga” from the past seven years. En la decisión de hoy, el FOMC debiere descartar, de forma convincingente, ese riesgo.

Exsubgovernador del Banco de México y autor de Economía Mexicana para Desencantados (FCE 2006)