As we all know, NFL is the king of sports betting. It generates the highest number of tickets, the largest handle and the most public attention. Because there is so much public bias in the market, going into the NFL contradictory can often be a smart strategy because not often, but the public loses.
But betting against the public only takes you that far. You also have to be on the sharp side. It means being with professionals who have a long track record of success, winning at high rates and respecting books. However, sensible people, not people, move numbers. Profession won’t win every time, but they win most of the time in the long run (about 55%). To find the fastest action, I will focus on the percentage of the bet, the percentage of the amount and the line movement, while also highlighting the historically profitable betting system.
Here are four NFL Week 1 games that receive smart money across the market.
Pittsburgh Steelers in the Buffalo Bulls.
This is the heaviest betting opening game of the week 1 Sunday Slate. The troublemakers opened the line with Buffalo as a 6-point home favorite. The public is on all the bills, having lost 13-3 last season, won the AFC East and reached the AFC title game. The Steelers, meanwhile, lost 12-4 but went down consistently, going just 1-5 in their last six games, including being knocked out of the playoffs. Heavy public batting pushed the buffalo from -6 to -7. Once the line reached a full point, the wise men attacked Pittsburgh +7, leaving the line at 6.5. Pittsburgh is a heavyweight betting game and matches many profitable betting systems. NFL Week 1 Big Dogs +6.5 or more are 27-17 ATS (61.4%) over the past decade. Also, Mike Tomlin has been an excellent bet as a ‘dog’ with 38-19 ATS (66.7%). Professionals have also targeted the underdog, dropping from 50 to 48.5 overall. The forecast calls for winds of 10-15 mph at New Era Stadium, which benefits the underdogs.
Jacksonville Jaguars in Houston Texas.
This AFC South matchup is a great storm to change public perceptions. The Jaguars went 1-15 last season, but the public loves them when new head coach and top pick quarterback Trevor Lawrence made his debut at Urban Mayer. Similarly, the public has nothing to do with the Texans, who went 4-12 last season and will be without star quarterback Deshon Watson due to legal issues. The Texans have the least expected win of any team (4), and the public statement focuses on how terrible they would be without Watson this year. The line opened with Jigsaw as a 2.5-point road favorite. Entertainment beaters are hammering Jags, which has taken the line to -3. Professionals see a perfect “buy low, sell high” contrasting space and jump to a key +3 on Houston, dropping some books 2.5 inches. Divisional dogs have had 38-18 ATS (67.9%) in Week 1 over the past decade. It is also a classic “feed rookie coach and rookie QB” system for professionals.
Minnesota Vikings in the Cincinnati Bungalows.
This interconference matchup is one of the biggest dramas of all time. Minnesota is coming to a 7-9 season, but the Vikings saw a sequence of short scores against a Bangladesh team that was 4-11-1 ahead. This line opens with Minnesota as a 3-point road favorite. About three out of four bets are placed with Minnesota. This heavy batting forced the difficult makers to adjust the Vikings to -3.5. Once the hook became available, natural-minded intellectuals bounced Cincinnati to +3.5, causing many books to adjust back to 3. Frozen and / or reverse line movement. NFL Week 1 dogs have had 85-70 ATS (55%) over the past decade. Week 1 ‘Dogs where the line stays the same or blooms (think +3 to +3.5) are 59-43 (57.8%) in the last decade.
Denver Broncos at the New York Giants.
Week 1 is the biggest line movement of the slate in this game. The Denver 5-11 season is coming, while the Giants are 6-10 ahead. This line opens as a short 1-lane road favorite with Denver. Wise people have beaten the Broncos, raising Denver from -1 to a key number of -3. Profession has hit Denver with anything – 2.5 or less. Although we haven’t seen any significant purchases in the 3+ on the Giants, the late Denver supporters may prefer the mini-line game over the Broncos (-155). One reason the profession can love the Broncos here: Teddy Bridge Water. We saw that once coach Vic Fungio announced Teddy Two gloves as a starter on Drew Lock and steamed the Broncos. Bridgewater is one of the best quarterbacks to return to the NFL in terms of batting, with 35-14 ATS (71.4%) in its starter career.