No es para ‘presumir’ un crecimiento de 1%, pero… – Meczyki

For the first time in many years, not only is inflation higher in the United States than in Mexico, but the growth of the Mexican economy contrasts with the decline of the United States.

This Friday, INEGI announced the timely estimate of Mexico’s PIB corresponding to the second quarter of the year.

The figure suggests that economic activity in the country remains resilient in the period April-JuneCuando se registró un crecimiento trimestral de 1 por centolightly above the expectation of analysts’ consensus.

While the industrial activity continued to reactivate, the commerce and services extended their recovery.

Hay que recordar que en el periodo enero-marzo de 2022, la economía mexicana también se incrementó 1 por cento a tasa trimestral.

Es notorious la fuerte Resistencia observed in the second quarter of the year, the period highlighted by the fifth wave of Covid-19 infections in the country.

The approximate measurement of the PIB monthly in May, which is the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), decreased by 0.2 per cent monthly, after having grown by 1.3 per cent in April.

Además de que fue la primara contracción since October 2021, quedó included por debajo del dato anticipated por el Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica (IOAE), que sugería un nulo crecimiento mensual en May.

The IOAE, which shows the estimated figures for the past two months and which for the General is a precise indicator, anticipates that the IGAE will contract by 0.4 percent in June.

Sin restriction, los resultados de la estimación opportuna del PIB suggestugen que la actividad económica habría tenido un mejor comportamiento en junio.

En cualquier caso, estos indicators disponibles confirman que nuestra economia aún no recupera sus levels previos a la pandemiaen un contexto de elevada e unusual incertidumbre global.

Uncertainty is associated above all with the evolution of the pandemic, the persistence of disruptions in global supply chains and inflationary pressures.

Aunque no es para presumir ni celebrarel crecimiento del PIB de México en el segundo trimester del año con respecto a los three meses anteriores es un buen datoConsidering the case of the United States, whose economy follows a route with decreasing returns.

Expressed as an annual quarterly rate adjusted for seasonality, the US GDP in the period April-June 2022 contracted 0.9 percent, according to the first estimate of the Office of Economic Analysis of the Office of Economic Analysis.

This, luego de that the economic activity in this country fell during the first quarter of the year to a rate of 1.6 percent.

Thus, the main commercial partner of México would have entered a ‘technical recession’, which is defined as two consecutive quarters with decrecimiento.

El FMI exposuo en su update de Perspectivas de la Economía Mundial (to inform WEO) de esta semana que, para EU, “algunos indicators”, como el modelo de predicción GDPNow del Banco de la Reserva Federal de Atlanta, “apuntan a que ya podría haber empezado una recesión técnica”.

Lo que se advierte es una deceleración pronunciada, más que una recessioni en EUque officially tiene que ser determinada por la Oficina Nacional de Investigación Económica (NBER).

The NBER defines the recession as “a significant decrease in economic activity that extends to the entire economy and lasts a few months”, criteria that are not met now.

Sin embargo, the estimates of the probability of a recession have increased, because the indicators available show a weakening of the American economy towards the end of the second trimester, after a recovery.

The weakness responds to the tightening of financial conditions by the pronounced increase in interest rates, as well as to the lower confidence of consumers by the general rise in inflation.

No obstante, el behavior del PIB de EU en los dos primeros trimestres del año hará cada vez más difícilnothing is impossible, Avoid a recession en los próximos periodos trimestrales.

The EU represents the principal risk for recovery Mexicodonde la economia Enfrentará mayores retos para seguir creciendo en los próximos meses a medida que se mantenga a muy complejo entorno para frenar la inflation.