Recorta FMI perspectives de crecimiento – Meczyki

El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) recortó las perspectivas de crecimiento mundial en su reporte World Economic Directory (WEO), Dado a conocer recently.

The IMF analysts forecast that the world economy will grow by 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.9 percent in 2023, which means a downward adjustment of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points previously. WEO, Published in April of the present year.

Among the countries most affected by the change in perspectives is the United States. El crecimiento en ese país was revised down to 1.4 and 1.3 percentage points in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

This is due to a more weak growth than expected in the two first quarters of 2022, with a fairly minor effect on private consumption, due in part to the erosion of the purchasing power of households, the effect of inflation.

So, el crecimiento de la economia norteamericana se pronostica en 2.3 y 1.0 por cento en 2022 y 3023.

Para Canada las projections también se ajustaron a la baja. Para el presente año y el próximo los analistas del FMI anticipan crecimientos de 3.4 y 1.8 per cento, lo cual significa ajutes a la baja de 0.6 y 1.0 puntos centuales, respectively.

In the case of Mexico, the FMI analysts made a double adjustment. On the one hand, the growth prospects for 2022 have been adjusted upward by 0.4 percentage points, to reach a growth rate of 2.4 percent.

sin embargo, para 2023 el prognostic se ajustó en 1.3 puntos a la baja, esperando que nuestra economía crezca 1.2 por cento.

El crecimiento en la zona del euro is also revised downwards: 0.2 percent in 2022, and 1.1 percentage points in 2023.

This review reflects the secondary effects of the war in Ukraine, as well as the assumption that financial conditions are becoming more restrictive.

According to the report of the IMF, the most dynamic economy in the world during this year and the next one will be that of India. A pesar de sufrir ajuste a la baja en los dos años, the analysts of the IMF expect that the Indian economy will grow 7.4 percent in 2022 and 6.1 percent in the next year.

The report of the FMI contemplates also some risks in the forecast horizon. Etre ellos se encuentra el hecho de se que la guerra en Ukraine provoca nuevos aumentos de las precios de la energía, lo cual alimentaría la inflation es persistentemente elevada en muchos países.

Another risk contemplated is that the disinflation is more expensive than expected. The main central banks have raised interest rates to contain the high level of inflation. But this can cause a recession in economic activity.

Otros riegos contemplated are the persistence of the deceleration in China, as well as the increase in the prices of food and energy provoca dificiultades, hambrunas y malastar generalizados.

Confirm Desaceleración.

The opportune estimate of the internal gross product of Mexico given by INEGI confirms the deceleration of the Mexican economy in this period.

According to these results, the GDP during the second quarter of 2022 grew by just 1.0 percent compared to the previous quarter and 1.9 percent with reference to the second quarter of 2021.

In annual terms, the sector that grew the most was the secondary sector, which includes the industry in its different modalities, with a rate of 3.3 percent, while the tertiary sector, which includes commerce and the secondary sector, which includes commerce and securities. , servicmento1 encremento .

The author is an economist of the UANL, with a doctorate in the School of Graduates of Administration and Management of Companies (EGADE) of the ITESM. Es profesor de la Facultad de Economía de la UANL y member del SNI-Conacyt.