VSIN’s NFL experts offer a side, total and prop for a showdown between the Bills and Chiefs at Aerohead Stadium on Sunday night.
You men: Steelers have forgotten a mysterious loss of weather in the rear view mirror of the bills. The Buffalo have bulldozed three weaker opponents (Dolphins, Washington, Texas) with serious defensive and quarterback problems, so facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs would be a big step in the class. Kansas City clearly has defensive issues, but I doubt Josh Allen has the ability to match the Mahmoz in a shootout.
Mahoms separated Buffalo Defense for 325 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 38-24 win in last season’s AFC title game. The price at home chiefs is rarely so cheap.
Your selection: Chiefs-2.5.
Mountain: I like Uder here and bet on it; not yet. I’m sure these high profile teams and the two MVP candidates will draw a lot of “over” money, especially the quarterbacks, especially at the end of Sunday, as this is the stand alone game in prime time and the last game of the day. The Bulls are allowing the best 4.0 yards in a league in terms of defense, but that’s their point of view that makes the U-Round very attractive to me.
The two teams played in Week 6 last year, and Bulls coach Sean McDermott hid no secret from the fact that their “two deep security” defensive strategy is the way to overcome the Chiefs. He even commented after the game that despite the defeat, the game plan was the same and he would duplicate it if given a second chance. Bills included the Chiefs in an effort to run 245 yards faster at 465 (!!). While the Chiefs moved the ball voluntarily, they were kept at just 26 points.
When they met in the AFC Championship game last January, Patrick Mahomes threw 325 yards and was run just 25 times by the Chiefs, who amassed 38 points on the run to victory. Mahomes has been in high business this year (four INTs), so I try to return the bills, encourage the Chiefs to run the ball and use long, time-consuming drives, hopefully Mahomes Bay There will be patience and some emphasis. The point I expect is that Buffalo’s outlook will be similar to last week’s Week 6 match-up, which ended with a 26-17 final. Wait, as you are likely to get a number near the kick off, but take it under.
Hill selection: Less than 56.5.
Brown: After losing its first game of the season, Buffalo’s offense is back in the form of 2020. The only part I didn’t enjoy was the weeding and cultivating. He has failed to get his prop number in three of the four games to start the season.
The obvious reason is that Allen didn’t have the game script to keep throwing, as he could easily throw more than 2.5 touchdowns against the Dolphins and Texans if necessary. Game scripts aren’t a concern for Allen on Sunday night, as everyone plans to shoot back and forth with Mahomes and Kansas City crime.
Allen should be able to easily overcome this barrier, given that the offense of bills leads the league in higher pass rates than expected. At +140, this seems to be the ideal bet on “SNF”.
Choice of brown: Josh Allen has more than 2.5 touchdowns (+140).